In a thoughtful mood this morning, it seems. First post was about the blog, now this post will be about me.
Previously, I wrote that I was interested in picking outcomes to football games. I wrote a computer program that I wanted to market that would do that---that is, pick games versus the spread. The outcome of that wasn't satisfactory, although one guy I knew thought well of it. If it doesn't meet my objectives, I cannot in good conscience market it as a product. So, I didn't.
Years later, I wrote another program that attempted to predict the movement of the stock market. That one didn't work out either. One thing that it may have accomplished was to find anomalies. To me, this is the most useful thing that you can look for in watching the market action. Trying to predict the way the market will go on any given day is about as useful as predicting the outcome of football games versus the spread. In other words, a waste of time.
I guess the point here is that I have a track record of trying to predict the future. That track record indicates to me that it is an impossible job. But you can find anomalies that may tell you something useful going forward.
That is what I trying to do with this blog. Predictions for the future. I am trying to handicap potential solutions for problems.
Going forward, that is what this blog will attempt to do. In order to bring more focus to what I do here, I will try to handicap potential solutions for problems.
What a mess of a post.
Update: Part 3 of a series. Part 2 here. Part 4 here.
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